Is the Bitcoin Price in Danger of Dropping to $42K? Here’s a Worrying Scenario

What a separateence a couple of days produces, from bullish ‘Uptober’ momentum to endureish price foreseeions.

Bitcoin slumped around $4,000 in the wake of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, and pessimistic sentiment has seeped back onto crypto social media.

However, zooming out shows that BTC is still wilean its range-bound channel, which has persistd for the past half a year.

A Fall to $40K Possible?

On Oct. 2, ITC Crypto set uper Benjamin Cowen decorateed a very griefful picture based on historical price action follotriumphg Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin rallied for two weeks follotriumphg the first rate cut in 2019. However, it then tanked to the 100-week moving mediocre in the months that chaseed.

If history rhymes, a aenjoy descfinish to the same technical indicator would put BTC prices back at around $42,000 by mid-November, he said.

Just to recommend a separateent see to think about other than the “up only” see mostly scatterd on this platcreate, in 2019, #BTC rallied for 2 weeks after the 1st rate cut, then dropped to the 100W SMA 2 months tardyr, which would correply to mid-November. pic.twitter.com/ogicF89JrM

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 2, 2024

However, the recommendion does not consent into account that 2019 was the middle of a endure labelet, and it was not a halving year, which produces a separateence.

Nevertheless, other analysts also recommended someleang aenjoy but provided no rationality, tardyr describing it as a ‘shitpost.’

This was the $BTC test dump for 40k. Bearish. pic.twitter.com/vbmszAMHmb

— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) October 1, 2024

As labelet analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out in a post on X on Oct. 1, there are plenty of reasons to remain bullish.

Increasing global wateryity thcdisesteemful M2 money supplies, rate cuts, which are usuassociate excellent news for hazardier assets, China’s economic stimulus meaconfidents, an approaching US election where crypto is a cgo in, and a traditionassociate bullish period for crypto in Q4 are some of them.

On Oct. 2, ‘Ash Crypto’ telderly his 1.1 million X folshrinks that this was “a huge shakeout.” He inserted that October will commence with a dump, and we will see a sideways chop for most of the month before leangs lift off.

Miner Profitability Slumps

Nevertheless, Bitcoin miners may have a reason to be endureish. According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin mining profitability hit a recent low in September.

Daily block reward gross profit reduced 6% month-over-month in September, labeling the third consecutive month of degrade. The drop in revenue has been hugely attributed to the Bitcoin halving event in April. However, transaction fee revenue for the month was only $13.86 million, watchd Colin Wu.